CES 2014: Trends To Watch

Shawn G. DuBravac, the Chief Economist and Senior Director of Research for the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), kicked off CES 2014’s press events today by outlining four key trends he expects to see at this year’s conference:

1. Mass Customization

If the second Industrial Revolution (1860-1945) focused on mass production, we are now entering a third Industrial Revolution emphasizing “mass customization.” This started with websites like Café Press, custom stamps, and customizable sneakers from Nike, Puma, and Chuck Taylor. More recently Google’s Motorola X and the Kindle Fire’s mayday video platform pushed the envelope on customizable features and services.

DuBravac says 3D printing will be a “tremendous story this year” that extends the customization trend.  Similarly the low cost of sensors is poised to herald mass adoption of internet connected devices this year and beyond that enable personalized experiences based on our individual behavior and environments.

2. Age of Autonomy

With the advent of abundant cheap sensors and radios for every range, we’re entering an era of constant monitoring, feedback, and ability to make adjustments based on data coming in. That dynamic feedback will revolutionize not only our home and mobile technology, but also brick and mortar retail locations where changing demand and inventory levels can be constantly measured to improve operations and consumer experience.

3. Multidimensional Screen Expansion

2014 will see us expanding and enhancing the spectrum of screens.  This means not only a variety of screen sizes, but also factors like color, resolution, and curvature. “The wearable category will explode,” says DuBravac.  Smartwatches are projected to reach 1.5M shipped units in 2014 in U.S., but it remains a nascent market that’s “still looking for that killer application.”

In terms of form factor there’s a move toward flexible and bendable screens, but don’t expect big sales there quite yet. For now manufacturers will primarily use CES 2014 to show what’s physically and technologically possible. “It may be another 5 or 10 years until they’re commercially viable,” he concluded.

Ultra HD TV unit shipments should increase dramatically this year as well, but aren’t yet poised for a hug explosion.  That said, expect a few big announcements about content and services partnerships along the lines of the Netflix UHD streaming deal.

4. Curation & Context: Services Meet Systems

Right now algorithm like those employed by Netflix are based solely on your behavior on that platform– but DuBravac envisions a future where platforms can access information from your other connected devices to improve recommendations.  What if Netflix had access to your Basis watch and could determine how stressed you are? Or if could interface with a camera sensor to know how many people are in the room? What if Netflix was linked to your thermostat and could make movie recommendations based on the temperature outside or in your home?

The Power Of Real Time: A Media Trial From IPG Lab & AOL

IPG Lab partnered with AOL to evaluate the effectiveness of “real-time” advertising.  Specifically, to compare the impact of ad units that incorporate fresh, up-to-the-minute content, such as local weather forecasts, stock updates, or social feeds to standard ad units without these “real-time” components.  In addition, the study determined which types of ad functionalities work best on which screen (PC, Smartphone, or Tablet).  The media trial included a range of ad formats from different industries (CPG, Finance, and Auto) and a survey sample size of n=3,352.

Download Full Report Here: AOL Media Trial Results

 

Flurry & IPG Lab Media Trial: TV Viewing Vs Tablet

IPG Lab and Flurry conducted behavioral focus groups with tablet video watchers. Left alone in our living room, hidden video cameras show that participants watch tablet video very differently than TV, even taking the tablet with them on trips to the kitchen instead of waiting for an ad break, as our TV watchers did. Hear our participants give their opinions on tablet video first-hand, and see it through their eyes via a video camera embedded in their eye-glasses.

 

 

Exploring the Effectiveness of Branded Content

Forbes partnered with IPG Media Lab to conduct a unique study to explore the effectiveness of long-form branded content. 2,259 participants were recruited from relevant sections of the Forbes website, given a webpage to experience, followed by a post-exposure survey to measure branding impact. Participating brands included Chrysler, Woodford Reserve, and Charles Schwab.

Download the full report here: Effectiveness of Branded Content.Forbes

For press inquiries or to receive a high res version of this report, please email [email protected].

 

YuMe & IPG Lab Media Trial: Is the Tablet The Ultimate Video Viewing Device

IPG Lab teamed up with YuMe to measure tablet video viewing. In a media trial comparing the media consumption of 8,300 respondents across different devices (PC, Smartphone, Tablet), the study set out to examine the following:

  • Where and how tablet users view video
  • Which devices garner the greatest viewing attention
  • Which devices deliver the greatest ad effectiveness

The results proved that the tablet is an awareness machine – garnering the most attentive and undistracted audience that’s most likely to remember the brand ads seen. As traditional TV viewership continues to decline, tablets, in concert with other digital video platforms, are ready to assume the mantle as the next generation of TV.

See the infographic below for the full results:

 

YuMe_IPGMediaLabTablet_July 2013 copy 2

 

Flash POV: Do Mobile Devices Have A Blurred Lines Problem?

Earlier this year, Blackberry CEO Thorsten Heins questioned the future of tablets in a Bloomberg interview, saying that “in five years, I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore.”  Indeed, the release of smartphones with larger screens, such as the Galaxy Note, have given rise to the term “phablet” to indicate a device that is somewhere between a phone and a tablet, ostensibly eliminating the need to have both devices.

So are the lines between mobile devices blurring?

Maybe a little, but we don’t see it having any kind of substantial impact on tablet sales in the near future.  For now, the lines are more distinct than ever—even if the terminology is not.  Here are some key points to consider:

+        Phablet is a misleading term, because it’s really just a smartphone with a bigger screen.  A phablet (defined as having touchscreen between 5 and 6.9 inches) is a replacement for a smartphone.

+        In the early days of smartphones, smaller devices were desirable, but now that touch has become more sophisticated and responsive, screen sizes have got larger.

+        MAGNA currently estimates that there are about 169 million smartphones and 87 million tablets in the hands of Americans—but the latest ComScore data shows that “phablets” only account for about four percent of smartphones (just under seven million).

+        Recent research from Flurry confirms our own findings that tablets are largely an at-home, media-playing device (content, design, gaming), while smartphones are task-driven (navigation, shopping, mobile banking).  We think “phablets” fall into the latter category as well.

+        We agree with Time reporter Jared Newman that “phablets” are a niche, not a fad, and their emergence is simply an indication that consumers are enjoying bigger screens.

+        A recent downward trend in iPad sales has led to speculation that tablets could end up becoming more niche themselves, but it’s not that surprising given the influx of cheaper Android devices like the Kindle Fire.  Tablets remain the fastest growing media machines in history, and we project continued (albeit slower) growth over the next five years.

As the debate continues, what’s important for marketers is to be aware of is how consumers engage with brands on the various devices:

+        Phones = more ownership and more situations

+        Phones = shopping as an activity (product reviews/research, driving in-store, show-rooming, driver of purchase intent)

+        Tablets are used mostly at home, for personal content consumption

+        Tablets generate better video ad recall than other devices (see June 2013 Media Economy Report), and generate more spending per user compared to smartphones

+        eMarketer: In 2013, 63% of tablet users will make purchases vs. 39% of smartphone users

 

For more information, contact [email protected] or [email protected].

Flash POV: Viacom’s Deal with Sony: Are They Hedging Their Bets?

Although neither company has made any official statements, news reached the press late last week that Viacom and Sony had come to a tentative agreement for streaming the former’s networks on a yet-to-be-released Sony video platform. Details are sparse, as the two companies are presumably still working out the finer points of the deal, but here is what we know thus far:

+ The service would feature live feeds of the Viacom networks, the same as any MVPD would get
+ It will be initially available on connected Playstations and potentially Sony Smart TVs

The new streaming service would be competitive with similar products in the works from Google and Intel, but if the deal holds, it will be the first of the three to have secured live TV feeds. With content owners up in arms about Aereo’s live TV service and MVPDs facing increased competition from over-the-top solutions, this type of agreement seems counter to the industry’s interest in protecting the existing TV model. So why do it? We can only speculate at this point, but here are two potential reasons:

+ Viacom doesn’t have corporate ties to any particular multichannel provider, and has been notoriously aggressive in its negotiations them. We seriously doubt NBC Universal (Comcast) or the Turner Networks (Time Warner Cable) would be part of this kind of deal unless it was somehow synergistic. With multichannel subscriptions set to peak this year (see the latest Media Economy Report), perhaps Viacom is laying the groundwork to make sure its channels are viewable in a broadband-delivered video world.

+ Theoretically, the live feeds streamed via Sony’s service would include only the national ads. Since multichannel providers typically have some local ad time to sell every hour, Sony could possibly generate some ad revenue by filling in those gaps.

We estimate that there are currently about 22 million connected Playstations in the US today, which will give Sony’s new video service a relatively small footprint to start with. There will have to be subscription fees to finance the carriage of Viacom’s networks, which will further limit uptake. All in all, we don’t expect it to have any meaningful impact on the marketplace, especially since the user experience won’t be a la carte or on demand; it will be the same as receiving the networks via cable.

However, it does bring a familiar issue to the forefront, one we have been citing for some time now. The MVPDs control most of the broadband connections in the country. As consumers eschew traditional cable subscriptions for broadband video delivery, those companies will naturally charge more and more for internet access to make up for those losses. This was confirmed by former Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt, who was quoted in a New York Times article as saying: ”The reality is, if everybody watched TV over the Internet, and we were out of the TV business, then we would have to recover more money from the Internet service.”

At that point, the question becomes: is it really “cord-cutting?” Or just “cord switching?”

 

For more information, contact [email protected] or [email protected].